28 October 2022
In the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2022, respondents revised up further their inflation expectations for the 2022, 2023 and 2024 horizons. These now stand at 8.3%, 5.8% and 2.4% respectively; 1.0, 1.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher compared with the previous survey round. According to respondents, the upward revisions primarily reflect a combination of higher (non-oil) energy and food prices as well as their pass-through to other prices and higher forecast wage growth. Longer-term inflation expectations (for 2027) stood unchanged at 2.2% on average.
GDP growth expectations were revised down substantially for 2023. Respondents now expect activity to broadly stagnate in 2023 (0.1% growth) and expect growth to be negative between the third quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 with a cumulative decline of 0.7%. This is attributed to ongoing high energy price pressures, inflation affecting households’ purchasing power, a weaker global economy and tighter monetary policy. Longer-term growth expectations were revised down marginally to 1.4%.
Unemployment rate expectations were revised up for all horizons by between 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points. The profile for the future unemployment rate is hump-shaped with an increase to 7.1% expected in 2023 and a gradual decline thereafter to 6.6% by 2027.
Table: Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2022
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)
Survey horizon
2022
2023
2024
Longer term(1)
HICP inflation
Q4 2022 SPF
8.3
5.8
2.4
2.2
Previous SPF (Q3 2022)
7.3
3.6
2.1
2.2
HICP inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Q4 2022 SPF
4.0
3.9
2.6
2.1
Previous SPF (Q3 2022)
3.6
2.0
2.3
2.2
Real GDP growth
Q4 2022 SPF
3.0
0.1
1.6
1.4
Previous SPF (Q3 2022)
2.8
1.5
1.8
1.5
Unemployment rate(2)
Q4 2022 SPF
6.8
7.1
7.0
6.6
Previous SPF (Q3 2022)
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.4
1) Longer-term expectations refer to 2027.
2) As a percentage of the labour force.
For media enquiries, please contact Silvia Margiocco, tel.: +49 69 1344 6619.
Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.
Copyright 2022, European Central Bank
We are always working to improve this website for our users. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies.
Learn more about how we use cookies
We are always working to improve this website for our users. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies.
See what has changed in our privacy policy
We are always working to improve this website for our users. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies.
Learn more about how we use cookies